Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 20.847289 24.422864 28.786801 34.628524 42.447326 52.877376 68.468813
2024-12-22 16.217532 20.158139 25.453301 33.428459 45.836184 65.898339 104.992915
2024-12-29 13.967332 18.024491 23.829456 33.318585 49.851020 81.248997 160.622128
2025-01-05 12.050868 15.913065 21.660370 31.570780 50.241110 90.253162 217.088764
2025-01-12 10.503938 14.081175 19.545160 29.317258 48.778990 94.480828 270.418892
2025-01-19 9.377622 12.728871 17.960257 27.611600 47.793750 99.368248 342.408695
2025-01-26 9.536085 13.348097 19.632193 32.198169 62.225759 161.274639 1221.712817
2025-02-02 9.235278 13.186613 19.938574 34.207773 71.818411 225.712946 6044.800542
2025-02-09 8.473049 12.180820 18.595696 32.420109 70.196215 238.757699 16968.730574
2025-02-16 8.178120 11.930846 18.601400 33.614358 78.183568 325.431073 NaN
2025-02-23 7.757559 11.423642 18.054354 33.408968 81.652021 397.879758 NaN
2025-03-02 7.351654 10.907588 17.430082 32.891922 83.863407 474.189118 NaN
2025-03-09 7.050568 10.576308 17.178482 33.387573 90.960155 670.588053 NaN
2025-03-16 6.621149 9.982755 16.338505 32.203678 90.648214 775.466499 NaN
2025-03-23 6.331758 9.621067 15.933097 32.102369 95.257113 1070.099421 NaN
2025-03-30 5.939312 9.043306 15.023183 30.448048 91.667157 1119.187212 NaN
2025-04-06 5.537703 8.427538 13.989436 28.311598 84.929000 1015.313910 NaN
2025-04-13 5.207415 7.928673 13.170910 26.691716 80.341496 979.702011 NaN
2025-04-20 5.369469 8.355021 14.353054 31.042117 110.789747 5942.089435 NaN
2025-04-27 5.323525 8.381987 14.670461 32.942865 131.011936 110051.030462 NaN
2025-05-04 5.050240 7.951716 13.917440 31.252191 124.291222 104547.354040 NaN
2025-05-11 4.969526 7.893373 14.009993 32.381924 140.757989 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 4.815596 7.681405 13.727426 32.187709 146.532131 NaN NaN